February 5, 2012
Did you know that the direction of the stock market in any given year is determined by the outcome of the Super Bowl? Well, not really, but there is a fun statistic that has been dubbed The Super Bowl Indicator (SBI).
According to the Super Bowl Indicator, if the winning team is from the old American Football League (now the American Football Conference, AFC) the market will have a down year. Conversely, if the winning team is from the old NFL (now the National Football Conference, NFC) the market will rally this year.
The SBI boasts a high accuracy rate, coming in at about 80%. For the 30 years between 1967 and 1997 the indicator correctly forecasted the subsequent year's direction with about 90% accuracy - the last 14 years must have been harder to forecast.
Of course this correlation is nothing more than a fun anomaly (like the predictive octopus or politically-sensitive Spider Monkeys or everyone's favorite meteorological rodent), but I always enjoy watching every year to see if the SBI can pull it off once again. In any case, I hope everyone has a fun weekend and stays safe.
(This article contains the current opinions of the author but not necessarily those of Brighton Securities Corp. The author's opinions are subject to change without notice. This blog post is for informational purposes only. Forecasts, estimates, and certain information contained herein should not be considered as investment advice or a recommendation of any particular security, strategy or investment product. References to specific securities and their issuers are for illustrative purposes only and are not intended and should not be interpreted as recommendations to purchase or sell such securities).